话题:TD终端国产手机商机会有限

据传无线奥运工程赞助商三星将为北京奥运会提供上万TD/GSM双模手机和数据卡。

根据目前TD进展看,这将大大提升三星在TD终端的影响力。据项立刚讲,最新的三星TD手机性能已大大提升。三星成功利用赞助奥运机会,缩小了与中兴、新邮通等的差距。

TD试商用仍在进行中,由于网络还待完善,终端选择余地小,因此在试用中存在一些问题在所难免。三星很好地抓住了机会,充分发挥技术、营销优势,将其在2G手机中的优势延伸到了TD。这值得其他后来者学习借鉴。

TD试商用终端虽为中移动集采,但除友好测试客户选择受限制外,商业化测试用户销售的终端只有消费者购买才算最终销售。从第一阶段TD终端销售看,集中采购获得手机最高份额的新邮通,手机质量并未能与其份额吻合,而提供一款最高价格手机的中兴通讯,得到了更多的喝彩。这时消费者对性能、价格的判断成为最重要的优势,品牌形象也会对销售有一定影响。因此最终在试商用终端中获得最大利益的很可能是中兴、三星。其他公司,尤其是新邮通,作为新兴公司,还有许多东西需要学习。

在通信传媒俱乐部最近一次活动中,大家谈的主题就是TD商用对国产手机的机会。我的观点是,对中兴、华为、宇龙通信、UT斯达康这样与运营商有很好合作关系,又有较大研发投入且更能理解消费者需求的公司,TD试商用可以为它们的终端产品提供难得的机会。

对那些研发实力较弱、竞争优势主要在渠道的国产终端公司来说,TD很难成为机会,很难从TD商用中获得理想份额。原因是TD试商用初期大多在观望,而试商用后期,其研发能力和资本实力都很难让其与先入者以及三星、诺基亚这样的有实力的外资企业竞争。

外资企业,除三星、LG外,由于前期观望,在TD终端中没有收获是正常的。但如果TD试商用得到认可,快速进入市场也不是没有可能,尤其是诺基亚,已经在做积极准备。不过一个可能的结果是,前期的犹豫导致格局初定,后来者需要付出更多的努力。如诺基亚的CDMA手机,华为的CDMA手机、小灵通手机。

对于GSM手机存在的大量生产山寨机的公司来说,3G时代随着运营商定制、集采比例的提高,如果不能尽快在质量、研发上有所提升,将开始走下坡路。

愛伱 发表于 2008-04-16 09:32
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